Lando Norris heads to Qatar with the Formula 1 title finally within reach. After a dramatic swing in form between McLaren and Red Bull, and a chaotic weekend in Las Vegas, the championship fight is balanced on a knife-edge, yet the advantage sits firmly with the Briton.

Norris arrives at Lusail 24 points clear of both Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen, who remain tied behind him. With two rounds left, there are 58 points available: eight from Saturday’s Sprint and 25 each for the race in Qatar and the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

The Qatar Sprint alone cannot decide the title. Even if Norris wins on Saturday with both Piastri and Verstappen failing to score, his lead would stretch only to 32 points, leaving the contest open heading into Sunday’s Grand Prix.

His first genuine opportunity comes in the main race. If Norris can increase his advantage to 26 points by the end of the Qatar weekend, the championship is over. In practice, that means he must outscore both rivals by two points across Saturday and Sunday combined – regardless of whether he wins the Grand Prix or not.

A victory on Sunday simplifies the picture further. Should Norris win and take just one point more than both Piastri and Verstappen, he becomes champion. Even a late twist in Abu Dhabi would not undo it: on countback, Norris would prevail thanks to a superior win tally.

The tie-break scenarios favour him heavily. If he wins in Qatar, Norris would stand on eight victories for the season, ahead of Piastri’s seven and Verstappen’s six. Should Piastri match that total at the finale, Norris would still come out on top thanks to a much stronger record of second-place finishes – eight to the Australian’s three. Verstappen would fall short on wins alone.

For McLaren, the priority this week is stability after the costly double disqualification in Las Vegas. The team insists the skid block issue was a one-off, but with the stakes at their highest, they will want a completely uneventful build-up in Qatar.