The fight for the Constructors’ Championship is not officially over yet, but McLaren are in a very comfortable position. Going into the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, the team has collected 617 points. That is a lead of 337 points over Ferrari. Mercedes sit a further 20 points behind Ferrari, while Red Bull are almost 400 points adrift of McLaren.

In total there are still 389 points available in the season. These come from the remaining grands prix and sprint races. Once the weekend in Baku is complete, the maximum available number will fall to 346. This figure is important, because if McLaren leave Baku with a lead of at least 346 points, no other team will be able to catch them.

The mathematics is therefore straightforward. McLaren need to outscore Ferrari by at least nine points in Azerbaijan. At the same time, they must avoid losing more than eleven points to Mercedes and more than thirty two points to Red Bull. If they meet these conditions, they will be confirmed as world champions regardless of what happens later in the year.

In practical terms, a one-two finish for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri would secure the championship immediately. If Ferrari were to win the race, however, then McLaren would need to wait a little longer. It is worth noting that only once this season has McLaren failed to gain at least nine points more than Ferrari during a race weekend, which shows how consistently they have been ahead.

If McLaren succeed in wrapping up the title in Baku, it will be their second Constructors’ Championship in a row and the tenth in the team’s history. It would also mean that the championship is decided with seven races still to go. That would make it the earliest title win since 1988, underlining just how effective McLaren have been this season.

Much of their advantage has come from the fact that both Norris and Piastri regularly bring home strong results. Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull have all shown speed at times, but none of them have been able to rely on both drivers scoring consistently. That difference explains the large gap in the standings and why McLaren are now so close to sealing the championship.