Francesco Bagnaia has been for a long time marked as one of Ducati’s best riders. The Italian won back-to-back MotoGP world championships in 2022 and 2023, proving himself among the sport’s elite riders. Yet, despite these impressive milestones, experts started to suggest that Bagnaia’s time with Ducati’s factory team could be nearing its end.

TNT Sport expert Neil Hodgson has been vocal about his doubts. While Bagnaia currently sits third in the world championship standings, the gap to his teammate Marc Marquez is 250 points. More concerning, however, is the trend over the season: Bagnaia’s performance has dropped, and Ducati engineers are struggling to understand why. Luigi Dall’Igna, Ducati’s technical director, has hinted that the bike itself has barely changed, suggesting that the problem may be within the rider rather than the bike.

For Ducati, the factory seat next year remains highly desirable. Marc Marquez is expected to renew his contract, making him the first confirmed rider for the team. This leaves Bagnaia’s future uncertain, with a growing possibility that he will not continue with Ducati’s factory team.

So where will he go?

A possible option for him could be to move to a satellite team. Hodgson speculated that Bagnaia could remain within the Ducati brand but in a satellite team, such as Valentino Rossi’s VR46 team. This could offer him a soft landing due to his history with the VR46 Academy. However, both Hodgson and Jorge Lorenzo believe that Bagnaia might benefit more from a complete change, leaving Ducati to restart his career elsewhere.

“Given current form, I’m 90% confident he won’t be in the factory Ducati team,” Hodgson said during TNT’s coverage of the Catalan GP. “He may ride for a VR46 satellite team, but if I were Pecco, I’d be looking to change manufacturers because he knows he can’t beat Marquez on the same bike.”

Who could replace Bagnaia at Ducati?

The potential replacement for Bagnaia has already sparked discussion. Ducati has several options, both within their current satellite teams and externally. One of the options could be Pedro Acosta, who is widely regarded as a future MotoGP superstar and could be a direct promotion to the factory team. Fermin Aldeguer, who is currently with Gresini, has shown flashes of his brilliant performance in his rookie seasons, but he would have to improve consistency to earn a factory seat. Another option is David Alonso; however, he would have to join a satellite Ducati team first if he moves from Moto2 in 2026.

But that’s not all. Fabio Quartararo, the 2021 world champion, is also being mentioned. At 27 next year, he remains a strong contender for a factory seat if Ducati can persuade him to leave Yamaha. Hodgson believes the team could even compete with Honda for his signature, particularly if Marquez stays with Ducati and Bagnaia leaves.

Aldeguer’s rookie season has been mixed so far. Despite being ninth in the standings, he has already got four podiums, including standout performances in sprint races. Casey Stoner praised Aldeguer for delivering his best ride of the season at the Austrian GP, highlighting his potential. Luigi Dall’Igna has indicated that Aldeguer will race for Ducati sooner or later, with 2027 being a likely target. Aldeguer is currently focused on developing consistency rather than worrying about promotion, with Ducati providing peace of mind to let him progress at his own pace.

Marc Marquez has even publicly marked Aldeguer as one of MotoGP’s future stars, alongside Acosta and Jorge Martin. Such statements not only place the spotlight on the rookie but also signal Ducati’s long-term strategy: developing new talent to eventually take on their factory team.

On the other hand, there is Fabio Quartararo. With Yamaha’s current struggles, he could play a crucial role in shaping Bagnaia’s and Ducati’s future. Quartararo has had a challenging season on the M1, which currently ranks low in the constructors’ championship. Discussions about Yamaha switching to a V4 engine for 2026 add even more uncertainty, as there is room left for improvement. If Yamaha fails to fix these problems and doesn’t deliver a competitive bike, Quartararo may leave, opening the door for Ducati or Honda to pursue him.

Jack Appleyard from TNT Sports emphasised that Yamaha must prove their new bike is competitive to secure Quartararo. Without consistent results on track, he is highly likely to leave. David Emmett from Paddock Pass podcast suggests that Quartararo might even accept a pay cut to join a team where he can realistically fight for wins, such as Ducati.

Even when Bagnaia’s current situation is not ideal, even the double world champion is not immune to being compared to his teammate Marc Marquez. Ducati now faces a decision for 2027: whether to retain Bagnaia, promote Aldeguer or Acosta, or pursue a rider like Quartararo. For Bagnaia himself, a change of environment might offer the best path to revive his career.